1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2023	337627	Voidfall	Current	116	7.90	5.62	4.36
			Estimated	1,000	8.29	6.50	4.06

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
For centuries, the Novarchs, descendants of the royal House of Novarchon, have ruled with an iron fist over the feudalistic galactic empire of humankind, the Domineum. During this time, they brought stunning technological innovation and scientific advancements to their domain. This accelerated progression helped the Domineum reach — and eventually inhabit — even the farthest segments of the known galaxy, where new Houses emerged to govern the outer sectors of the empire. As the House of Novarchon grew in power, so grew the religious cult that surrounded them, proclaiming grim prophecies about an ancient cosmic being from another dimension: the Voidborn. Many thought it to be only a myth, but in truth, it was the Voidborn's dark influence that granted the Novarchs the sheer knowledge to achieve rapid expansion for the empire. While the cult of the Novarchs envisaged eternal life through the otherworldly entity, the Voidborn's only intention was satiating its eternal hunger. And so, when the Domineum had achieved a vastness fitting the Voidborn's craving, interdimensional rifts opened at the heart of the Domineum to unleash cosmic corruption. As the House of Novarchon and its followers welcomed the Voidborn and sought their false salvation, the entity infected and spread and seized control over the inner worlds. Now, it is time for the remaining Great Houses to purge the galactic corruption, prevent the Voidborn from fully manifesting in our dimension, and to ultimately overcome the chaos as the new rulers of the Domineum. Voidfall is a space 4X game that brings the genre to Euro enthusiasts' tables. It combines the tension, player interaction, and deep empire customization of the 4X genre with the resource management, tight decisions, and minimum-luck gameplay of an economic Euro. Win by pushing back the Voidborn in the solo/coop mode, or by overcoming your rivals' influence in restoring the Domineum in the competitive mode — both using the same rule set and game system. Variability is ensured not only by multiple playable houses with their own strengths and weaknesses, but also by many different map set-ups for all game modes. As the leader of a defiant Great House, you play through three cycles, each with a game-altering galactic event, a new scoring condition, and a set number of focus cards that can be played. Focus card decisions and sequencing is the centerpiece of the gameplay. By selecting two of their three impactful actions as you play them, you develop and improve techs; advance on your three house-specific civilization tracks; manage your sectors' infrastructure, population, and production; and conquer new sectors with up to five different types of space fleets. Space battles are fought either against the Voidborn's infected forces (which are present as neutral opponents even in the competitive mode) or against other players. Instead of relying on the luck of a die roll, battles in Voidfall are fully deterministic and reward careful preparation and outsmarting your opponents. —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/337627

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Voidfall? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Voidfall. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Voidfall. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2023	337627	Voidfall	1.00	5.62	7.90	4.06	116
1	2014	174402	Tide of Iron: Next Wave	0.81	5.72	8.06	3.44	182
2	2006	14105	Commands & Colors: Ancients	0.78	7.35	7.77	2.69	8,243
3	1987	6642	Western Front Tank Leader	0.77	5.63	6.81	3.10	203
4	2020	295905	Cosmic Frog	0.77	6.06	7.52	3.03	689
5	2012	40765	Clash of Cultures	0.76	7.07	7.61	3.60	5,441
6	2020	246900	Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy	0.76	7.88	8.63	3.59	6,636
7	1995	5034	Empire of the Rising Sun	0.75	5.61	6.78	4.33	217
8	2010	62222	Commands & Colors: Napoleonics	0.75	7.00	8.01	2.74	2,857
9	1989	6641	Desert Steel	0.75	5.58	7.00	3.05	114
10	2016	187645	Star Wars: Rebellion	0.75	8.17	8.42	3.73	26,583
11	2016	163474	V-Sabotage	0.74	6.39	7.75	2.69	1,398
12	2010	67492	Battles of Westeros	0.74	6.55	7.25	3.22	2,902
13	1985	1499	World in Flames	0.73	6.32	7.61	4.64	1,385
14	2006	25417	BattleLore	0.73	7.00	7.36	2.77	9,183
15	2012	104710	Wiz-War (Eighth Edition)	0.73	6.60	7.06	2.32	4,815
16	2019	231553	Jagged Alliance: The Board Game	0.72	5.81	8.23	3.46	282
17	2004	10630	Memoir '44	0.72	7.38	7.56	2.27	27,305
18	1979	2743	Starfall	0.72	5.54	6.34	3.06	101
19	2004	9858	The Russo-Japanese War: Dawn of the Rising Sun	0.72	5.56	7.85	4.09	46
20	1981	4296	Battles & Leaders: A Game of Tactical Level Combat in the American Civil War 1861-1865	0.71	5.53	6.71	3.25	51
21	2012	104162	Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition)	0.71	7.40	7.66	3.21	23,953
22	1985	243	Advanced Squad Leader	0.70	7.06	8.00	4.74	3,640
23	2017	186751	Mythic Battles: Pantheon	0.70	7.08	8.42	3.04	2,819
24	2015	148745	We Were Brothers	0.70	5.55	7.63	3.33	63
25	1987	2699	Fire Team	0.70	5.58	6.97	3.10	121

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Voidfall while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2023	337627	Voidfall	5.62	1.00	5.62	7.90	4.06	116
1	2016	187645	Star Wars: Rebellion	6.10	0.75	8.17	8.42	3.73	26,583
2	2020	246900	Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy	5.95	0.76	7.88	8.63	3.59	6,636
3	2006	14105	Commands & Colors: Ancients	5.76	0.78	7.35	7.77	2.69	8,243
4	2016	167791	Terraforming Mars	5.43	0.66	8.27	8.41	3.25	78,020
5	2012	40765	Clash of Cultures	5.35	0.76	7.07	7.61	3.60	5,441
6	2004	10630	Memoir '44	5.30	0.72	7.38	7.56	2.27	27,305
7	2010	62222	Commands & Colors: Napoleonics	5.25	0.75	7.00	8.01	2.74	2,857
8	2012	104162	Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition)	5.23	0.71	7.40	7.66	3.21	23,953
9	2006	25417	BattleLore	5.11	0.73	7.00	7.36	2.77	9,183
10	2017	186751	Mythic Battles: Pantheon	4.98	0.70	7.08	8.42	3.04	2,819
11	1985	243	Advanced Squad Leader	4.97	0.70	7.06	8.00	4.74	3,640
12	2010	67492	Battles of Westeros	4.82	0.74	6.55	7.25	3.22	2,902
13	2012	104710	Wiz-War (Eighth Edition)	4.80	0.73	6.60	7.06	2.32	4,815
14	2016	163474	V-Sabotage	4.75	0.74	6.39	7.75	2.69	1,398
15	2011	83330	Mansions of Madness	4.72	0.68	6.98	7.28	3.24	13,161
16	2013	146439	BattleLore: Second Edition	4.70	0.66	7.16	7.71	2.70	5,992
17	2006	17392	Here I Stand	4.67	0.66	7.10	7.90	4.18	3,699
18	2014	174402	Tide of Iron: Next Wave	4.65	0.81	5.72	8.06	3.44	182
19	2020	295905	Cosmic Frog	4.64	0.77	6.06	7.52	3.03	689
20	1985	1499	World in Flames	4.62	0.73	6.32	7.61	4.64	1,385
21	2010	59294	Runewars	4.61	0.64	7.17	7.63	3.79	8,001
22	2014	162082	Deus	4.58	0.66	6.97	7.30	2.85	8,028
23	2010	25292	Merchants & Marauders	4.55	0.64	7.13	7.40	3.24	13,317
24	2005	15363	Nexus Ops	4.53	0.66	6.90	7.21	2.23	8,639
25	2012	113924	Zombicide	4.50	0.65	6.87	7.13	2.54	17,585

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2023	337627	Voidfall	Mindclash Games	Nigel Buckle	Ian O'Toole	Civilization	Admin: Upcoming Releases	Action Points
			Maldito Games	Dávid Turczi		Economic	Components: Game Trayz Inside	Area-Impulse
			Super Meeple			Science Fiction	Components: Hexagonal Tiles	Command Cards
						Space Exploration	Components: Map (Interplanetary or Interstellar scale)	Events
							Components: Miniatures	Grid Movement
							Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Hand Management
							Mechanism: 4X	Hexagon Grid
								Income
								Modular Board
								Variable Player Powers

Individual Game Analysis